Friday, May 6, 2011

Stock Market cycles !

The stock market crash of 1929  unveiled a severe recession that has been termed as the great depression. After the prolonged bear market following the crash, the market reached its 1929 level  again  in 1954.

Secural bull and bear markets !

- Secular Bull Market, 1982 - 2000, (18 years)
- Secular Bear Market, 1966 - 1982, (16 years)
- Secular Bull Market, 1949 - 1966, (17 years)
- Secular Bear Market, 1929 - 1949, (20 years)
- Secular Bull Market, 1921 - 1929, (8 years)
- Secular Bear Market, 1905 - 1921, (16 years)

Detailed analysis is available at
http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/Articles/Trend_Following_Strategies/History_of_Stock_Market_Cycles.htm

Major stock market declines historically !
DJI    Peak to Trough            peak to trough time
         decline  %age 

1900      32%   12 months
1903     38%   10 months
1907     45%   10 months
1909    26%   8 months
1912   24%   26 months
1917   40%   13 months
1919   47%   21 months
1923   19%   7 months
1926   17%   2 months
1929   90%   34 months
1934   24%   9 months
1937   52%   56 months
1946   25%   37 months
1953   14%   9 months
1957   20%   6 months
1960   18%   10 months
1962   29%   6 months
1966   26%   8 months
1969   36%   17 months
1973   46%   22 months
1976   27%   17 months
1980   24%   20 months
1987   36%   2 months
1990   21%   3 months
1998   16%   2 months
2000   34%   30 months
2007   57%   18 months

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