Thursday, November 10, 2016

India black money crackdown - Asset price correction !

The black economy in India was dealt a severe blow with the recent move. Anything that is exposed or dependent or have grown in the last 20 years or so with  black money is  bound to suffer. Real estate sector specifically will undergo severe and prolonged correction - empty lands, apartments, commercial complexes etc are going to be worth a fraction of what they were selling for until recently. High spending weddings, big parties, luxury car purchases, any extravagant spending will take a big hit. This is a big jolt to the black economy that has become a significant part of the overall economy. Money has lost value and unproductive spending has risen to alarming levels over the past 2 decades in the aftermath of the economic liberalization, and caused severe inflation.  Also, one of the most important contributing factors to this raging bubble is the money flow from overseas to India from NRIs. Most of this money ended up in the real estate sector. Basically, most of the excess spending and the asset price bubble was the result of the black money and the high denomination currency that facilitated this.Once, the supply of this critical support is removed totally, this bubble will burst and the sectors like real estate will take a massive hit and will undergo a brutal correction over the coming years.

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